Welcome to the eVantage Real Estate’s monthly Orange County Real Estate Market Report. We chart Months of Inventory, Active vs Pending and Price per Square Foot for the south Orange County real estate market, using our own proprietary indicators. These charts are more time responsive and accurate compared to what is published by the traditional sources.(ie: Major Banks, Title Co’s, News Periodicals). The higher the Months of Inventory, the slower the market, and visa versa.
The overall Months of Inventory for All Price Ranges is still rising as a steady rate, which indicates the market is slowing down. This is due to a combination of the 1t Time Homebuyer Tax Credit termination, and the dog Days of Summer slowdown… the true test will come around September or October, for in past years, this indicator would max out and then decline in those months…. if it does not Max out this time, this may signal the beginning of double dip in home prices.
All Price Ranges are beginning to slow down, with the High End (Prices above %1.1Mil) as usual, being the softest at around 11.5 Months of Inventory which is a soft Buyers market. On the other end of the spectrum at the “Less than $450,000″ price range, the months of inventory is 1.8 months, which is a brisk Sellers Market, often times results in multiple offers on well price listings… Albeit, most of these lower priced listings that sell quickly are either bank owned REO properties or short sales.
The Inventory of Active Homes for sale continues to steadily rise since the beginning of this year, while the rate of sales (Pending in Escrow), has been steadily declining since April/May of this year. Of interesting note, is the number of Homes Pending at this time compared to last year… The national press has been making the headlines about how the number of sales (or homes Pending under contract) has dropped by 25% in July of this year, as compared to July last year. The rate of sales in south Orange County has started to decline since April, but at a much slower rate of decline compared to national reports. In July of this year, the number of homes in Escrow was 1,809, as compared to last July which had 1,736, which actually represents an increase of 4%… not a decline of 25%.
As we estimated well over a year ago, the overall dramatic decrease in the Months of Inventory put a halt to price reductions… prices have been holding steady for over a year now. If the Months of inventory keeps rising, and does not Max out in October, we may see an additional small decline in prices in the months ahead.
For more information about Orange County real estate, feel free to contact eVantage Real Estate at: (949) 388-3396
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