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3 - Orange County Economic News

Laguna Niguel Home Prices

by vbindi on June 24, 2009

There are currently 193 detached homes listed for sale in Laguna Niguel – Orange County, Ca.  There prices range from $449,900 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,303 SqFt home up to $8,995,000 for a 6 bedroom, 8 bath, 10,000 square foot 8 car garage estate in Monarch Point.  The Median price is $989,000, and the average price is $1,432,688.  Average price per square foot is $404/SqFt and average days on market is 106 days.

For detached homes, there are 82 properties currently under contract in escrow in Laguna Niguel.  These properties range in price from $435,800 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,446 square foot home, on up to $2,990,000 for a 5 bedroom, 7 bath, 6,000 square foot, 6 car garage estate in the Coronado Pointe community.   The median price of homes currently in escrow is $695,000.

In the past 60 days, there have been 67 detached homes that have sold and closed in Laguna Niguel.  These homes range from $340,000 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,341 square foot home, on up to $5,040,000 for a 5 bedroom, 6 bath, 6,300 square foot estate in the Bear Brand Ranch tract.  The median price home is $750,000 and the average price home that sold in the past 2 months was $1,037,332.  The average price per square foot was $345/SqFt and average days on market was 108 days.

One year ago at this same 60 day time period, there were 95 homes that have sold and closed escrow in Laguna Niguel.  These homes ranged in price from $480,000 for a 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,450 square foot home, on up to $4,400,000 for a 5 bedroom, 6 bath, 7,600 square foot estate in the South Peak subdivision. The median sold home price was $799,500 and the average price was $998,803.  The average price per square foot was $367/SqFt and average days on market was 79 days, just one year ago.

Comparing today’s prices to one year ago prices we find the following;   The Median price has dropped by 6%.  The average home price has actually gone up by 3.8%.   The Price per Square Foot has dropped by 6%.    For more information about Laguna Niguel Real Estate, please feel free to call us at:  949-388-3396

Yes, you read that correctly, in the price ranges of $650,000 and below, most of Orange County is now in a Hot Sellers Market.  In the price range of $450,000 and below, the Months of Inventory is a hot 1.1 Months for south Orange County… 2 to 4 months is considered to be a Sellers market, and below that is a hot Sellers market.   In contrast, the Months of Inventory for this price range was at 19 months in October of 2007′.  The number of  homes now in escrow is at 916 properties in the price range of Below $450,000… this Pending Homes total has not been this high since August of 2003′ .  Below is a graph of the Months of Inventory for all of the price ranges we track, since July of 2002′.

In the price range of $450,000 to $650,000, the Months of Inventory is at 1.8 months, which is also a hot sellers market.  Albeit, about 60% of these sales are either bank owned REO properties or short sales, but these are real sales with real buyers none-the-less.  This is resulting in  multiple purchase offers within days of listing properties on the market for sale for well priced Bank Owned REO’s and Short Sales.

Where is all of  the demand coming from you may ask?  Well, it is a combination of investors and first time homebuyers who have been sitting on the fence for the past 4 to 5 years. Investors with cash are buying for they can now get a decent yield with a down payment of 30%. Many investors feel that most, if not all, of the downside risk in the local real estate market is behind us. And many are leery of the stock market, and CD yields are now very low… First time home buyers are also now buying.  Fixed interest rates are now at all time historic low, and there is pent up demand from the low rate of sales in the past 2 years.  My hats off to their discipline and timing…

The Months of Inventory is a leading indicator, which has been dropping to today’s lows for many months now.  Another one of the proprietary indicators that we gather are moving averages of the Price per Square foot for both Condos and Detached homes.  This is a lagging indicator, although much more accurate then the Average or Median prices that are quoted in the press.  This Price per Square foot indicator has been holding steady now for the past 5 weeks, which is another indication that we have approached the bottom.

The Million Dollar Question is . . . is this the bottom of the Orange County real estate market ?  My sense is, if this is not the bottom, then we are very close to the bottom… but, I believe it will be a long drawn out bottom, with no noticeable price appreciation for several years… The reason being -  I believe  over heated inflation will return in a year or so, due to the recent government policies of flooding the US economy with billions of dollars cash.  When this happens, the Feds will raise interest rates to curb inflation, which will put a damper on real estate price appreciation.

Many of our Orange County clients ask us how a Short Sale will effect their Credit Rating ?  That is a valid and important question, which we will address herein.  First of all, this question really needs to be compared to an alternative to give the answer meaningful relevance.  The two alternatives to a Short Sale for eliminating mortgage debt, where the Orange County home is worth less then the total debt,  is foreclosure or bankruptcy.   (There is a third alternative called deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, but mortgage banks almost never go this direction, and the effects on credit are very similar to a Short Sale.)

First the disclaimer – trying to predict the exact outcome of ones credit report is very difficult.  The reasons why are many;  One, your credit is effected by many variables and it is difficult to isolate the effect of just one variable.  Two, the calculation of your FICO score is a constantly  evolving process, and the factors that were used 6 months ago, may not be the same factors they use today.  Three, your credit rating is composed of three different credit reporting agencies (Equifax, Experian, TransUnion), and they each use different processes and techniques to calculate ones FICO score.

Based upon our experience and reports from other experts in the field, a short sale is about 100 to 200 points less damaging to ones FICO score, compared to a Foreclosure, and about 200 to 250 less damaging then Bankruptcy.  The primary damage to the credit  rating is not the actual short sale, but the months of late payments.  So the less the number of late payments, the better to a certain a degree.  Not only is the FICO score reduction a factor to consider, but also of importance is the length of time the credit is negatively affected.

A Foreclosure will stay on ones credit report for about 7 years, while the effects of a Short Sale are several years less then that.  In addition, there is another positive benefit of a short sale compared to foreclosure regarding shortening the delay to renewed loan worthiness. Fannie Mae (FNMA) recently changed their underwriting policy for purchasing mortgages from Banks. A past Orange County home owner has to wait 5 years after a Foreclosure Sale before FNMA will underwrite a new mortgage loan. But, if the Orange County home owner conducted a Short Sale, then the wait time for a new loan with FNMA is just 2 Years !

Finally, we have established a association with a credit restoration company, that has worked with many of our past short sale clients. This company has been able to make substantial improvements to our clients credit scores, who credit was negatively effected by a short sale. But this company has a very difficult time improving ones credit after a foreclosure.

There are other benefits to a Short Sale for Orange County home owners, as compared to foreclosure or bankruptcy, which we will discuss in following articles. We published an eBook called “Should I Short Sale My Home?“.  For the time being, we are giving this away for FREE.. so just click on the previous link to get your copy.  For more information or questions, please fee free to contact us at: 949-388-3396 or drop us an email at:    Info@ShortSalesASAP.com

The Obama Administration recently announced that  is moving forward with the foreclosure prevention plan which they claim with help as many as 12% of homeowner nationwide.   The program is geared to help homeowners avoid foreclosure for both lower income earners, up to upper income borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth.   The approximately nine million American homeowners that this plan may help, is designed to shore up housing prices,  slow a downward spiral in home prices, and stabilize neighborhoods throughout many areas of the USA.

Nearly 1 in 10 home mortgages is either delinquent or in foreclosure, and analysts estimate that at as many as 6 million households could lose their homes over the next three years in the absence of government action.

The banking industry has strongly resisted this proposal,  saying it would make investors unwilling to finance future mortgage lending. But Democrats in Congress strongly support the idea and banking executives are putting up less resistance than before.

Program #1:  The  Obama plan will create a $75 billion program to help the estimated 4 million homeowners in danger of foreclosure, by subsidizing loan modifications.  This program would reduce a family’s monthly payment to as little as 31 percent of its gross monthly income.

A mortgage lender would have to first make loan term alterations in order to  reduce a borrower’s payments to 38 percent of monthly income. To encourage lenders, the government would offer incentives, like a $1,000 upfront payment for every loan modified and more payments if the borrower stays current. If the lender gets the monthly payments down to 38 percent of the borrower’s monthly income, the government would then match, dollar for dollar, additional reductions to bring the payment as low as 31 percent of monthly income.

These loan modifications could be worked out  in several ways, from stretching out the repayment period of a loan to reducing the interest rate or reducing the outstanding principal.

Administration officials said that this plan to help homeowners facing foreclosure did not deal with second mortgages.  Second mortgages were often made by a different lender than the first mortgages, and would  greatly complicate negotiations over a loan modification.

Program #2:  To help homeowners who can still keep up with their payments, but who may resent the idea of rescuing others, Mr. Obama’s plan would make it easier to refinance at today’s very low interest rates.

The plan would apply to people with fairly traditional loans that are owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — about 30 million homeowners. The new loans would not be subsidized, but borrowers would not need to have a 20 percent equity stake in the house.

The big limitation of the refinancing portion of the plan is that it would not help most borrowers who are current, but under water. It would only be available for mortgages that are not more than 5 percent above the current market value of the house.   Estimates are that this program would help less than a million of the 14 million homeowners who are under water.

Program #3:  This program is more vague component of the plan is aimed at propping up the mortgage market as a whole by having Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac step up their purchases of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.  Also, government official are working with major banks to encourage a more efficient and streamlined short sale process, to help alleviate many of the delays experienced today with such transactions.

We have jsut released our new eBook called “Should I Short Sale My Home“.  We are currently offering this eBook for FREE, so feel free to download your copy today by clicking on the previous link.

Orange County Real Estate CA. — the Bottom may be near.

by Vincent Bindi on October 21, 2008

There is lots of worry in the residential marketplace today in Orange County, Ca. Prices have dropped about 30% to 35% from their peak values that occurred in the summer of 2006′. But I see some signs that we may be reaching the bottom of this pricing downturn. How you may ask ?

First sign… I have been tracking the internal market stats for residential real estate in south Orange county, CA since July of 2002′ on a weekly basis. I’ve been charting Months of Inventory, Active vs Pending and Price per Square Foot using our own proprietary indicators which are more time responsive by about 4 to 6 months then what is published by the traditional sources.(ie: Major Banks, Title Co’s).   The Months of  Inventory is a very sensitive indicator that is a leads the movement of prices by about 6 months.  The Months of Inventory dramatically dropped about 4 months ago, and if the rate holds, I expect prices to bottom out by the end of this year.  Now this indicator does not have any long term predictive powers, and if interest rates where to dramatically rise, of the lending markets where to freeze up and become illiquid then all bets are off.   (See Chart Below)

Second Sign — I know a little bit about the stock market, and one of the signs indicating that a bottom may have been reached is if the stock price does not react negatively upon the release of negative news that should have affected the stock.  I’ve noticed this phenomena in real estate prices. Albeit the price movement in real estate move at a much slower pace then stocks. During the tragedy of 9-11-01, the Orange County, Ca real estate market slowed done, but prices did not budge.  Then at the beginning of the following year, prices continued to rise.  During the the financial meltdown that started about 3 weeks ago, in which many financial advisers where fearful that this may have started a Great Depression II, the number of homes under contract (In Escrow), hardly changed.  Sure we new of a few clients here and there, who backed out of their transactions, but I was expecting a large number of contract cancellations… but it didn’t happen.  Evidently, the vast majority of buyer in escrow during this time feel confident that they are buying property at bargain basement prices.  That I say is a sign of an approaching pricing bottom.  See the graph below that shows that the number of homes in escrow, has essentially held steady for the past 6 months.  In addition, the number of homes in escrow has nearly tripled since the 20 year low set in January of this year, while the number of homes Active for sale has dropped considerably. (see graph below)

The Mortgage Bankers Association recently fought off federal legislation that would have allowed bankruptcy judges to modify residential mortgages. The MBA’s victory was a huge success for lenders, but an unfortunate loss for homeowners who have declared bankruptcy. 

Lenders disliked the proposal, since it would have shifted some of the power over mortgages from lenders’ loss-mitigation departments to bankruptcy judges, who might have imposed modifications that the lenders wouldn’t have liked.

The risk was deemed so serious that the MBA pulled out all the stops to pound the idea into dust. Lawmakers were lobbied, members were mobilized, press releases were issued, and the MBA’s Web site featured a “Stop The Bankruptcy Cram Down Resource Center”.

Consider “cram down,” a bit of MBA-speak that refers to a judicial cut in the interest rate on a borrower’s existing loan. The term may be new to some, but in fact dates back to the last real estate downturn. The phrase naturally evokes emotionally charged images of gagging, choking and force-feeding, none of which is relevant to a serious discussion of bankruptcy relief.

Consider also the MBA’s claims that mortgage interest rates would rise by as much as 2 percentage points and that lenders would be forced to require bigger down payments and charge higher closing costs if bankruptcy judges had a say. No factual evidence was offered to support these arguments.

In fact, a causal connection between the so-called “cram down” and significantly higher interest rates is a stretch at best, according to an academic paper by Adam J. Levitin, a law professor at Georgetown University. The paper stated that even unlimited loan modifications in bankruptcy courts would have only an insignificant, if any, impact on mortgage interest rates or mortgage markets.

Of course, the MBA also had a promised presidential veto in its pocket and the support of Alphonso Jackson, the now-former secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. In a speech, Jackson called the proposal “an odd, time-consuming, distant way to help homeowners,” and said, seeming with no evidence other than the MBA’s say-so, that it would increase interest rates and — horror of horrors — benefit lawyers and law firms.

The MBA has supported other measures such as pre-foreclosure counseling, the use of mortgage revenue bonds to refinance subprime loans, and the strictly voluntary Hope Now loan workout program. These measures may be worthwhile, but the cost to lenders is minimal and so far, the results have been modest.

Not surprisingly, consumer groups support an expansion of bankruptcy judges’ jurisdiction to encompass residential mortgages. AARP, the AFL-CIO, ACORN and the Center for Responsible Lending are among the groups in favor of this proposal. These groups believe the federal government should put more pressure on lenders to help homeowners who are in danger of foreclosure, and a Congressional Budget Office report said lenders might have more incentive to modify loans if bankruptcy judges had the power to impose such concessions.

The MBA deserves plenty of credit and kudos for the success of its “Stop the Cram Down” effort. The group did exactly what such groups are supposed to do, which is to protect the interests of their own members — no matter how narrow or parochial those interests may be.

But at the end of the day, the win on this one should have gone to the homeowners. Bankruptcy isn’t pretty, and recent changes to the U.S. bankruptcy code have already made the process more onerous. Yet bankruptcy serves a legitimate and important public policy purpose, which is to give people in dire straits a fair and reasonable way out of their extremities. Bankruptcy shouldn’t be just another form of Dickensian debtors’ prison. It should offer real relief and an opportunity for folks who’ve experienced hard times to get a fresh start.

As the law stands today, home-loan lenders are a favored class of creditor in the bankruptcy system. In fact, residential owner-occupant mortgages are perhaps the only type of debt that bankruptcy judges aren’t allowed to modify. Judges can alter loans backed by cars, boats, farms, manufacturing plants, mobile homes, vacation homes and investment properties.

Of course, there should be limits to bankruptcy judges’ power, and the proposed legislation contained plenty of them, perhaps even too many. Relief would have been offered only to homeowners who faced imminent foreclosure, who had a subprime or nontraditional loan such as an interest-only or payment-option adjustable-rate mortgage, and whose income wasn’t sufficient for them to afford their mortgage payments. Bankruptcy judges would be required to set commercially reasonable interest rates on modified mortgages and wouldn’t have been allowed to reduce loan balances to less than the home’s market value.

Homeowners who’ve been forced into bankruptcy deserve a chance to keep their homes if they can afford to make reasonable mortgage payments, and bankruptcy judges are in a good position to make that call.

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Today, foreclosed REO homes and Pre-Foreclosure (Short Sales) make up a large percentage of the Listings and Sales in Orange County, CA. This severe market correction started in the summer of 2006′, and probably has 6 to 12 more months to go. Currently, there are 15,046 homes and condos Active for sale (Listed in the MLS).  Of this total, 29.5% are Short Sales and 6.3% are bank owned REO’s.  This represents a total of 35.8% of all inventory is a financially distressed property on the market for sale.  Below is a table showing these results as well as how these percentages of distressed listings range from City to City.

As can be seen in the table below, this market correction is affecting the lower priced markets much more severely then the highest priced markets.  For example, 64% of Santa Ana’s inventory of homes for sale are either foreclosed REO’s or Short Sales.  While only 4.4% of the inventory or properties for sale in Laguna Beach, CA are bank owned REO’s or Short Sales.

Properties Active for Sale
City Listings Short Sales Short Sale  % REO REO % % Total Distressed
Anaheim 1207 615 51.0% 157 13.0% 64.0%
Huntington Beach 699 121 17.3% 18 2.6% 19.9%
Laguna Beach 343 12 3.5% 3 0.9% 4.4%
Mission Viejo 448 159 35.5% 28 6.3% 41.7%
Orange 667 211 31.6% 53 7.9% 39.6%
Rancho SM 367 131 35.7% 28 7.6% 43.3%
San Clemente 528 88 16.7% 15 2.8% 19.5%
Santa Ana 1595 815 51.1% 207 13.0% 64.1%
Yorba Linda 426 67 15.7% 14 3.3% 19.0%
Orange County 15046 4432 29.5% 951 6.3% 35.8%

Looking at the number of properties sold in the past 90 days reveals some other interesting facts.  There are 951 Bank Owned REO properties currently on the market for sale, and 986 REO’s sold and closed escrow in the past 90 days.  This results in just 2.9 Months of Inventory which is a Sellers Market !   For those of us working in the field, this chives with experience in which many REO listings are selling rapidly and many with multiple offers.  The other interesting fact to not is that there are 4,432 short sales actively listed for sale, but only 556 closed in the past 90 days.  This represents 24 Months of Inventory.   What is actually going on here is that the Short Sales are actually selling at a much higher rate, but these sales have a high failure rate for many inexperienced Listing Agents are having hard time getting them approved by the Banks in order to close.  The moral of this story is that if you are interested in purchasing a Short Sale, make sure you are working with an experienced agent who has a track record of success with these types of purchases.

New FHA Loan Limit for Orange County CA.

by Vincent Bindi on March 17, 2008

As stipulated in the newly passed Economic Stimulus Bill of 2008, FHA announced the  new loan limits for Orange County, CA.  This new FHA loan limit is based on a calculation of 125% times the median price, up to a maximum of $729,750.  Since the median price in Orange County is around $600,000, the new FHA loan limit for Orange County is the maximum allowed.  Below is a table of the loan limits for single family homes, as well as small multi-family housing:  

Single Family Home —- $729,750
Duplex ——————— $934,200 
Triplex —————— $1,129,250
Four-plex ————–  $1,403,400

HUD Secretary, Alphonso Jackson recently announced the new limit increase at the Anaheim Convention Center where HOPE NOW was conducting a national anti-foreclosure campaign. This new $729,750 limit will double the previous FHA loan limit of $362,790, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced. This limit is good until the end of the year when it reverts back to $362,790, but some feel this deadline will be extended into 2009′.  This new bill will allow FHA to refinance of up to 97% loan to value, but most mortgage lenders will only go up to only 90% loan to value.

This new FHA loan limit will enable many Orange County homeowners to refinance out of their expensive adjustable rate mortgages, even if their property has has gone done in value over the past few years.  Also, the new FHA loan program will allow some homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages to refinance if they are behind on payments.

Another great benefit for Orange County would be home purchasers, is that FHA is much more forgiving of a few negative marks in ones FICO credit rating. in the past 12 months, Conventional lenders have become much more demanding on credit quality. New FHA underwriting will also allow for more flexible income documentation and less time on a given job.

This new FHA loan limits for orange County plus more flexible qualification standards could be a big boost for the slumping Orange County housing market.  Many Orange county residents depend on jumbo loans, anything above the current $417,000 limit. Interest Rates on jumbo loans are more expensive, ten conforming loans (ie: loans below $417,000).  The average rate tis past week for a 30-year fixed conforming loan in Orange County was 5.9 percent with a one-point fee, while the average jumbo rate on a 30-year fixed was 6.9 percent with a one-point fee.

If you would like more information on the new FHA loan limits, or would like a referral to a couple of great local FHA lenders, feel free to call us at: (949) 388-3396, or send us an email at:  Info@OCRealtyGroup.com   We specialize in Short Sale workouts for Orange County homeowner in need.  If you would like to learn more about Short Sale workouts, visit our website at:  www.OCShortSaleCenter.com

New Economic Stimulus Bill will raise Conforming Loan Limit.

by Vincent Bindi on February 21, 2008

President Bush signed the Economic Stimulus Bill into law this past Wednesday, February 13th.   Although the details are not finalized, the department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has 30 days to publish the median area home prices, Metropolitan Statistical Areas and mortgage principal obligation limits after the bill became law.  The new Proposed Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac conforming loans are to be based on 125% of the area median home price not to exceed $729,750.  That is great news for Orange County, for the median home price here is approximately $600,000, which means that Orange County conforming loan limit should be around the $729,000  limit.

I expect that this year will be the bottom of this severe market correction.  With the proposed buy-out of Countrywide Mortgage by Bank of America, the recent large decrease in the Fed funds rate, the new Federal program called Project Life Line that helps delay and possibly avoid Foreclosures, and  this new Economic Stimulus Bill raising loan limits,  this should put the brakes on  further price erosion here in Orange County..

The new loan limits will apply to 30 year and 15 year fixed rate, fully amortizing (sorry no interest only) and owner occupied homes only.  They should also apply to high Loan to Value (LTV) FHA loans which should really help to stimulate the local real estate market back to normal health.  Adjustable rate mortgage are being considered but but I would not  count on it. Although the bill has passed the information above is not final.  Changes are set to expire on December 31, 2008, although I would be willing to bet the this Bill is extended like many other Bills in years gone by. 

Ladera Ranch Home Prices – Feb 2008′

by Vincent Bindi on February 12, 2008

Currently there are 221 detached homes for sale in Ladera Ranch, CA.  these homes range in price from $465,000 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,812 square foot home in the Tarleton tract on Rinehart road.  On up to $5,995,000 for a 5 bedroom, 7.5 bath, 8,700 square foot estate property in Covenant Hills on Bell Pasture Road.  The median priced home is $989,900, and the average priced home is $1,309,576.  The average days on market is 96 days and the average price per square foot is 376/SqFt.

Today, there are 24 detached single family homes that are under contract Pending in escrow.  These homes range in price from $524,900 for a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1,775 square foot home on Livingston Place in the Westcott tract.  The maximum home in escrow, is $3,395,000 for a 5 bedroom, 5.5 bath, 4,923 square foot estate home in Covenant Hills on Mission Ridge.  The median priced home is $989,000 and the average priced home in escrow in Ladera Ranch is approximately $1,250,000.  The average price per square foot is $324/SqFt and the average days on market is 80 days.

For homes that have sold and closed in the past 90 days in Ladera Ranch, there  were 42 such detached homes that sold.  These homes range in price from $479,900 for a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1,600 square foot on Amy Way in the ??? tract.  The highest priced home sold was for $4,350,000 for a 4 bedroom, 5.5 bath, 7,820 square foot estate San Jose street in Covenant Hills.  The median priced home is $824,900 and the averaged priced home is $931,606.  the average price per square foot is $320/SqFt and the average days on market is 81 days.

Comparing these home Sold statistics to the same 90 day period of time last year we find the following.  1 year ago, there were 83 homes that sold and closed escrow in the same 3 month period of time.  The median priced home sold 12 months ago was $835,000 and the  averaged priced home was $1,037,505.  The average price per square foot was $359/SqFt and the average days on market was 81 days.  Below is a table of the results.

Price 2007′ 2008′ % Change
Median     835,000     824,900 -1.21%
Average   1,037,505     931,606 -10.21%
$/SqFt           359           320 -10.86%

As can be seen, prices have dropped about 10% in the past year in Ladera Ranch.   This  presents a very good buying opportunity for interest rates are still extremely low, and some properties in Ladera Ranch that are Bank owned REO’s or pre-Foreclosures (Short Sales), can sometimes be purchased for 20% to even 30% less then what comparable homes were selling for about 2 years ago.  For a list of bargain homes for sale, please visit our website at:  www.OCBargainHomes.com