Our previous blog article ( The Orange County Real Estate Market is Alive Again ! ) caused a bit of controversy, so I thought I would further clarify and elaborate on the previous report… Someone commented on that previous blog post that I’m calling for a ‘Recovery’ in the local Orange County real estate market… I never used the word Recovery for in my mind a recovery is a return to last summers peak in pricing and I do not see that occurring this year or next year… What I did say, is that I see an end to price reductions, which in other words, I’m estimating that we have reached the bottom of the market with regard to price reductions (or very close to the bottom)…
Let’s dive into the details of home pricing… but some background first. The home price figures that many of the newspapers and large banks quote are based upon Quarterly, 6 month or Yearly data of either the Average home price or the Median Home price. They then usually compare this to the same time period of last year. The problem with this approach is two fold… One, there is an inherent lag due to the long averaging period of 3, 6 or 12 months coupled with the fact of comparing those averages to 1 year ago.. Two Average home prices can be skewed by a few high price sales, and both Median and Average home prices can be skewed by home owners opting for larger or smaller homes as demographics change.
As an example, if one compares a 6 month Median price of today’s prices for detached homes in Laguna Niguel (currently $915,000) to the same 6 month period a year ago, which was $899,000, one would conclude that prices are still rising… But the fact is, prices have dropped by 8% to 9% in the city of Laguna Niguel compared to the peak in pricing last summer.
Below is our graph of home prices for south Orange County represented by Price per Square Foot for the cities of Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo and Mission Viejo. This graph is based on a 3 Month average, moving average of detached (SFR) homes in the above cities, in the size range of 1,900 square feet up to 2,500 square feet, and then the average Price per Square Foot is calculated and graphed. In this way, we have a much more time sensitive graph, that delivers a smooth chart, and is not subject to the changes in buyer habits (such as buying larger move-up homes, or smaller empty-nester homes). One can note on the graph that prices have dropped from a high of about $385 per SqrFt down to $351 per SqrFt today, or about 9%. And since there is a small lag time in our calculations due to the 3 month average, and an additional delay from Months of Inventory to Actual Sold home Prices, I predict that home prices will level out at about the $340 per Square Foot range (for mid sized detached homes in those 3 cities). This is where some homes are priced at today (the ones that are selling in 30 days or less) and represents about a 11% to 12% drop from the pricing highs of last summer.

I quess-timate that in 3 to 6 months, the local papers will be ranting about how local homes prices have dropped by 8% to 10% compared to last year, and they may even say this is the beginning of the bubble bursting… The fact is, prices have already fallen by about 10%, and by the time the papers report this, I expect prices to stabilize at these current levels or move slightly lower to about $340 per Square Foot, which were the pricing levels in late 2004′ and early 2005′ .
How or Why do I say this you may ask ?… There have been way to many buyers sitting on the fence in the past 14 months waiting for prices to drop (which they have) — When many of the doomsday bloggers move away to Kansas City, then I would worry about a bubble bursting, but not now ( In the stock market, they have saying that the market ‘climbs a wall of worry’ which also applies to real estate ) In addtion, home builders are not building fast enough to keep up with population growth… I was just involved in two seperate transactions in the past 2 weeks in which there were multiple offers on homes for sale. Yes, multiple offers, and they were NOT fire sale foreclosure properties, but just homes that were price very well (priced 11% less then similar homes that sold 9 months ago). Yes, I’m going out on a limb and saying that we are at the bottom (or very close to the bottom) of price reductions, and I see prices holding more or less stable at these levels for the remainder of the year (barring a dramatic rise in interest rates).. What about the rest of Orange County ?… well as John Kennedy said ‘a rising tide raises all ships’ which holds true in our local real estate market.. I expect all of Orange County and the greater LA basin to more or less follow these pricing trends…
If you are a Buyer who has been sitting on the fence for the past 14 months, this may be your time to jump. If you would like more information about the south Orange County CA real estate market, please feel free to visit our website at: Orange County CA Real Estate